So today is
the day that the USA
goes to the polls.
This time tomorrow we should know who will be in charge of the
biggest hoard of nuclear weapons in the world, for the next four years.
The
changeover on the other side of the pond is a bit more civilised that in the UK. If Barack Obama
wins then he carries on in the White House as before and will be sworn in early
in 2013 for another term. If he loses then he will not have to bring the
removal people in overnight! He will carry on in a transition period until Mitt
Romney, please no (!), takes the reins in January.
This
promises to be one of the closest elections in recent years. The result in many
states is predictable. Obama will be expected to win in New
York and California and Romney in
Texas and many
of the southern states. The result will ultimately come down to a few marginal
states.
Opinion in
the UK
overwhelmingly favours Obama. According to the Mail Online the margin is 85% to
15% in the UK.
The pattern is similar across the world –
Obama
remains hugely popular because of his historic win in 2008 and because the
world was so relieved to see the back of GW Bush. In fairness we do not have
the same insight into domestic issues and this partly explains why it is so
close in the USA
itself. And Romney has hardly endeared himself over here with his insulting
statement that London
was not fit to host the Olympics!
Whatever the
result I hope that the decision is made by voters and not by the Supreme Court
as happened in 2000 when Bush won a finely balanced election despite losing the
popular vote –
I still remember
the confusion and uncertainty that followed that election. It was bad for the USA and
bad for the rest of the world due to the massive influence of American Foreign
Policy.
I would
prefer a resounding Obama victory. But I would prefer to see Romney win than have
the lawyers decide who the people voted for!
So to all
our friends over there - have a good day and choose wisely.
It promises
to be a late night.
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